Ethiopian Waters Advisory Council (EWAC)
የኢትዮጵያ ውሃዎች መማክርት
STATEMENT
January 2026
Water, Development, and Security in the Nile Basin:
A Comparative Analysis of Ethiopia and Egypt
1. Divergent Development Paths in the Nile Basin
Ethiopia and Egypt—two of Africa’s most populous and strategically important
nations—stand at the center of the political economy of the Nile Basin, the Great Horn
of Africa, and Red Sea Region. Yet Ethiopia’s and Egypt’s development trajectories
have diverged sharply over the past century. The contrast between the two countries is
not rooted merely in differences of population or natural resource endowment, but in
how water has been utilized, governed, and historically constrained. Ethiopia
contributes an overwhelming share (86%) of the Nile waters yet remains one of the
least water-utilizing economies in Africa, while Egypt, which contributes almost none of
the river’s headwaters, has constructed a modern state largely on intensive irrigation
and total use of the waters with complete disregard of the needs of upper Nile countries.
This water usage asymmetry corresponds directly with the stark developmental gap that
separates the two nations today. ¹
2. Water Inequities and Structural Development Gaps
Ethiopia’s population is approximately 129 million, compared with about 115 million in
Egypt. While both countries are populous, their economies and social outcomes differ
dramatically. Egypt’s gross national income (GNI) per capita in purchasing power parity
terms is roughly 17,710 international dollars, almost six times Ethiopia’s roughly 3,050
international dollars in 2023. Nearly all Egyptians have access to electricity, whereas
about 55 percent of Ethiopians do. Per capita energy consumption is also significantly
higher in Egypt, reflecting more developed industrial and urban sectors. These contrasts
correlate strongly with the divergent levels of water utilization in each country, as water
underpins agriculture, food security, and industrial expansion. ²
3. Comparative Development and Water Use Indicators
The following table summarizes key indicators that illustrate the disparity between
Ethiopia and Egypt in development outcomes and water utilization based on the latest
available data:
Comparative Development and Water Use Indicators (Latest Available)
Indicator Ethiopia Egypt
Population (millions, 2023) ~129 ~115
GNI per capita, PPP (Intl $, 2023 estimate) ~3,050 ~17,710
Access to electricity (% of population) ~55% ~100%
Energy consumption per capita (GJ/person) ~17 ~43
Annual freshwater withdrawals (billion m³) ~10.5 ~77.5
Per capita water withdrawal (m³/year) ~80–100 ~850
Multidimensional poverty (% of the population) ~69% ~5%
Sources for Table Indicators: World Bank; UNDP Global MPI 2024; FAO AQUASTAT.
4. Human Consequences: Poverty, Food Insecurity, and Fragility
The human implications of this hydrological imbalance are stark. According to the 2024
Global Multidimensional Poverty Index, Ethiopia’s incidence of multidimensional poverty
remains extremely high, with nearly 69 percent of the population experiencing
deprivations across education, health, and living standards. Egypt’s multidimensional
poverty rate is much lower, at around 5 percent, reflecting broader access to services
and economic opportunities supported by water-intensive systems. These disparities
reinforce that Ethiopia’s abundant water endowments have not translated into
corresponding human development outcomes. ³
Egypt’s reliance on the Nile is nearly absolute; research indicates that the river supplies
about 97 percent of the country’s renewable freshwater needs, with minimal rainfall or
other reliable sources within its territory. Ethiopia, by contrast, possesses significant
annual river runoff but withdraws only a small fraction of its renewable resources,
leaving agriculture largely rain-fed and millions vulnerable to climate shocks, which
cannot be sustained. ⁴
5. A History of Obstruction and the Lost Development Opportunity
Ethiopia’s limited water utilization has been shaped not by a lack of technical vision but
by historical geopolitical pressures and constrained investment. For decades, Ethiopia’s
efforts to develop hydropower, irrigation, and water storage infrastructure on the Blue
Nile were discouraged or blocked by downstream political influence. Historical analyses
show that Egypt exerted diplomatic pressure on multilateral development institutions to
restrict financing for upstream projects. ⁵ This long-term denial of investment
opportunities combined with Egypt’s political interference in Ethiopia’s domestic matters,
including promoting secessionist movements had cumulative consequences: lost
livelihoods, missed industrialization, stagnated irrigation, and continued poverty,
vulnerability to drought and climate risks.
6. Water as an Instrument of Transformation
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) captures the aspirations and
frustrations of this long history. As Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, the GERD
represents Ethiopia’s determination to harness its water resources for national
development. The dam is essential for Ethiopia’s energy stability, industrial expansion,
rural electrification, and climate resilience. It is not a geopolitical luxury—it is a
developmental necessity fully financed by Ethiopia. ⁶
Egypt’s opposition to the GERD is misplaced and reflects its deep dependence on Nile
flows and its long-standing hostility towards upstream water agreement. Its reliance on
the river for nearly all renewable water resources shapes its political stance and
resistance to basin agreements that recognize the development rights of upstream
countries. ⁷
7. Equity, Sustainability, Regional Stability, and the Future of the Nile Basin
The extreme disparities in water use and development outcomes raise critical questions
about fairness, equity, and regional stability. Ethiopia produces the majority of the Nile’s
waters but utilizes only a small portion for its own socio-economic development; Egypt
consumes most of the water but contributes almost none hydrologically. As Ethiopia’s
population grows and its development needs intensify, the historical imbalance in water
use becomes increasingly untenable.
A sustainable and peaceful future for the Nile Basin depends on recognizing Ethiopia’s
legitimate development rights and embracing cooperation that ensures equitable and
reasonable utilization of shared waters. The Cooperative Framework Agreement
(CFA)—a historic treaty has now entered into force, even though Egypt and Sudan have
not yet signed. Its core principles reflect a simple truth: Egypt’s long-term water security
will be strengthened, not weakened, by a stable, food-secure, and energy-secure
Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s pursuit of equitable water use is therefore a pursuit of fundamental human
rights— the right to development, security, and self-reliance. It is also a commitment to
ensuring that future generations in upstream source countries can undertake their own
development efforts with confidence, in line with the United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals and the principles of fairness, sustainability, and shared benefit. In
the end, water remains the decisive factor—shaping the destiny of nations and offering
the clearest pathway toward a just and prosperous Nile Basin order.
The Ethiopian Waters Advisory Council (EWAC) is a non-profit and non-governmental
organization that brings together Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia scientists,
academics, researchers, educators, and practitioners worldwide to help Ethiopia
achieve water and food security and be free of abject poverty and deprivation. EWAC
promotes the equitable, reasonable, and sustainable use and conservation of Ethiopia’s
Nile and other river systems through generating multidisciplinary, scientific, and
evidence-based knowledge on water resources to inform policy and planning.
Footnotes
1. John Waterbury, Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley (Syracuse University Press, 1979); and
Tvedt, Terje, “The River Nile in the Age of the British: Political Ecology and the Quest for
Economic Power.”
2. World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2023.
3. UNDP and Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative, Global Multidimensional
Poverty Index 2024.
4. FAO AQUASTAT, “Ethiopia: Water Use and Resources,” and “Egypt: Water Profile,” latest
available; see also Assefa M. Melesse (ed.), Nile River Basin: Ecohydrological Challenges,
Climate Change and Hydropolitics (Springer, 2011).
5. Yacob Arsano, Ethiopia and the Nile: Dilemmas of National and Regional Hydropolitics
(University of Zurich, 2007).
6. Salman M.A. Salman, “The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: The Road to the
Declaration of Principles and the Khartoum Document,” Water International 41, no. 4 (2016).
7. Dale Whittington, Kenneth Strzepek, et al., “The Nile Basin: Balancing Historical Claims and
Future Needs,” Environment 45, no. 2 (2003).